Elliot Chodoff

Last night I had the pleasure of meeting and listening to a lecture by Elliot Chodoff. He is a teaching fellow at the University of Haifa and military analyst with an expertise in the Middle East conflict and the global war on terror. Chodoff spoke about what went right and what went wrong in the Israel-Lebanon conflict this past summer.

Chodoff's speech was great. He was very frank about the successes that Israel had, including killing approximately forty percent of Hizbollah's trained forces. For those who think that Israel lost, Chodoff pointed out that Nasrallah has not emerged from hiding since the conflict started and that Nasrallah himself has recently admitted surprise at and regret provoking Israel's ferocity.

Of course, Israel's victory took much longer than anyone expected and at greater psychological harm to Israel than necessary. Chodoff explained why: Israel's top political leaders followed the advice of the top military leaders, who were all former air force personnel. As Chodoff explained, the Israeli air force is excellent at what it does, which is to provide air support to the ground troops and to "neatly" (my word, not his) drop bombs on specific sites, albeit without the ability to enter the sites and see who and what are inside. Also, the air force is unable to take terrorists alive and interrogate them in order to extract useful information. In short, the air force should have been the backup to a massive ground invasion, not vice versa. Once Israel got the ground troops en masse into Lebanon, it was working against the clock of an impending ceasefire.

Chodoff also admitted that Israel has still not come to grips with how to win the public relations war. Part of the problem, Chodoff explained, is Israel's attempt to balance playing the victim on the international stage while at the same time maintaining national morale and abiding by a certain moral code. For example, when a terrorist blows up a bus, it would be very easy to publish pictures of bodies hanging from the charred remains and garner sympathy from Western nations. On the other hand, Israel emphatically opposes exploiting the dead or injured for any reason. Also, Israel has to concern itself with how the imagery will affect the national psyche.

In response to a question as to how Israel reached the point of Hizbollah attacking it, he explained that it was the result of Israel not taking all the saber rattling over the past few years seriously enough. He said that Israel's use of force this summer was, if anything, not enough. In general, Israel is far more aggressive about stopping terrorism before it inflicts damage, albeit without the sensitivity to what others may say. For example, he described the following hypothetical situation with a request to suspend political commentary, which I ask as well: In the summer of 2001, following years of terrorist attacks, the Bush administration learned that the 9/11 plot was in progress. Rather than just arrest the plotters, the American military, using whatever resources necessary, tracked down al Qaeda's leaders and troops and forcefully dismantled the entire operation. The tragedy of 9/11 would not have occurred. At the same time, Bush would have assured his defeat in the 2004 election.

The difference between the two cultures, Chodoff explained, is that, while factions of Islam are at war with Israel, the United States and Europe, only Israel takes it seriously. Ironically, Chodoff predicted that France will be the first European country to strike at terrorism, both in the Middle East and by instituting measures, like creating concentration camps, before any other nation. He explained that the nicer the country, the more it is willing to tolerate attacks before retaliating. France is not nice.

I could not do justice to either effectively summarizing everything Chodoff said or even remembering all the points he covered. I therefore encourage you to subscribe to his e-newsletter here. I have also e-mailed Elliot telling him about this post so he can correct any inadvertent mischaracterizations I may have made.